It's no secret that prices are going up. Here's what tariffs will hit holiday shoppers the hardest, plus how to avoid bogus deals.
Rising grocery prices are an obvious example of the Trump administration’s far-reaching 2025 tariffs. But last week, I received a personal tariff surprise — an additional $25 charge that arrived with a package of car parts from the UK. My friend received a similar bill that week as well, for an imported carpet runner she’d ordered. Now, with new unexpected financial hits lurking around every corner, it’s no surprise there’s a lot of worry about how tariffs will impact our holiday shopping season.
“Compared to last year, when no tariffs were in place, overall holiday spending is expected to decline,” says consumer advocate Michael Podolsky. “Consumers are adopting a more practical, selective approach to gifting.”
According to a 2025 Pissed Consumer report, 57.3% of US shoppers feel events like Black Friday no longer meet our shopping needs. So with holiday tariffs, will Black Friday 2025 still bring good deals for shoppers? We talked with trade, retail and commerce experts, and here’s what we found out.
The Current State of Tariffs
As of October, the average U.S. tariffs are at more than 18%, up from less than 2.5% at the beginning of 2025. Overall, the greatest increases are in goods from China and a few other nations. The tariffs also disproportionally affect metals, leather and apparel, according to a recent analysis from The Budget Lab at Yale. While they’re not making headlines like they were earlier this year, their added cost is “still embedded in much of the cost structure of imported electronics, machinery, home goods and appliances,” says financial expert Eric Croak.
Are Tariffs Going to Change Black Friday?
Yes, many prices will be higher, but not dramatically — at least not this year. Most products currently on the shelves of major retailers were bought long before the tariff hikes, says fulfillment expert Mark Becker. “Retailers already have their stock for the season sitting in distribution centers, so while prices may be creeping overall, Black Friday deals should look familiar this year.”
What Deals Will Be Most Impacted
In general, with holiday tariffs, there will be fewer bargains on electronics, furniture, and other home goods, as well as products made from metal, microchips or imported components, says Croak. For example, “A gaming system that uses imported semiconductors, or a $2,000 refrigerator that has imported steel in its design, could rise 5% to 12% this holiday,” he says.
A More Expensive Holiday Season
Overall, prices on everything from gifts to groceries have been rising because of both general inflation and tariffs. Sourcing expert Eran Mizrahi predicts that pantry staples and specialty foods, in particular, will continue to rise. So will decorations, says supply chain expert Pawan Joshi, since many are made in China. Candy and chocolate are also getting more expensive, but not necessarily because of tariffs, he says, but because cocoa supplies are becoming more scarce.
A More Expensive Holiday Season
Overall, prices on everything from gifts to groceries have been rising because of both general inflation and tariffs. Sourcing expert Eran Mizrahi predicts that pantry staples and specialty foods, in particular, will continue to rise. So will decorations, says supply chain expert Pawan Joshi, since many are made in China. Candy and chocolate are also getting more expensive, but not necessarily because of tariffs, he says, but because cocoa supplies are becoming more scarce.
What’s more important to keep in mind is that the tariffs that went into effect this year will be felt more dramatically in 2026, says Becker. “I can tell you with confidence that next year will look different. As retailers begin placing their 2026 purchase orders under the new tariff structure, you’ll see the change reflected in shelf prices. So, if you’ve got a big purchase in mind, this is the time to buy,” he says.
Also, even if some tariffs get rescinded and inflation slows, price increases are unlikely to reverse, says Croak. “We’ve quietly seen many list prices creep up 3% to 5% every quarter, and holiday sales season is a convenient time to normalize them,” he says. “Perception of scarcity plus holiday urgency makes consumers less price sensitive, so inflation pass-throughs get scheduled on emotional spending spikes.”
What Will Tariffs Impact Most?
Electronics, furniture, toys, apparel, kitchen items and, in general, products with metal and imported components. Specialty items from high-tariff countries will also increase in price.
If you’re planning on buying your significant other a luxury watch this holiday season, you can expect a hefty price increase due to the tariffs that were placed on Switzerland. The same is true for many clothing items coming from Vietnam, Cambodia, India or Bangladesh.
How To Spot Inflated Prices
The easiest trick is to compare prices to those of last year. If something was $299 in 2023 and is “on sale” for $279 this year, that’s not really a deal, says Becker. Also, keep a lookout for “shrinkflation”, when brands offer less of a product in the same packaging, such as a tool set with fewer units in it than last year.
Finally, look for companies that inflate retail prices, so they can then offer a seemingly incredible discount on them. “Some brands anchor high to give them something to slash later and create urgency,” says Croak. “An item can be ‘50% off’ and still $30 more than the same item last year.”
How To Find The Best Black Friday Deals
Avoid falling prey to emotional spending and impulse purchases. Instead, research prices and decide which ones are acceptable, so you’re not swayed by urgency. Also, sign up for brand and marketing emails, says e-commerce advisor Greg Zakowicz. That will keep you informed about promotions, and many brands offer a discount for new sign-ups.
Zakowicz also recommends using an email database like milled.com, which keeps track of retailer holiday offers from the previous year. “Many brands will repeat sales from one year to the next, and this can be a good indication of how deep the discounts will become,” he says.
FAQ
Should I expect shortages or fewer choices this year?
Yes, to an extent. While there shouldn’t be widespread shortages like there were during the pandemic, customers can expect a more limited assortment of products.
“We can expect retailers to be more discerning about the number of items they carry, but they also need to stay relevant to their customers, so we can expect them to continue to carry and restock the items that matter the most,” says Bornino.
What about shipping and delivery — do tariffs affect that too?
Yes. For some direct imports, you may incur an additional tariff charge. Also, shipping companies are raising prices as their bottom lines increase due to tariffs on heavy-duty vehicles, maintenance and parts and fuel.
Tariffs will likely also lengthen shipping times. “Importers may stagger shipments or consolidate freight to offset costs,” says Becker. “For consumers, that can mean slightly longer delivery windows on certain imports, but domestic shipping itself isn’t tariffed.”
This article was originally published in Family Handyman by Karuna Eberl on October 30, 2025.